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Chapter

Dynamic Demographic Analysis

Volume 39 of the series The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis pp 147-176
Date: 20 February 2016
Demographic Consequences of Barker Frailty

    Alberto Palloni Affiliated with Center for Demography of Health & Aging, University of Wisconsin-Madison   Email author  
    , Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez Affiliated with Community Health Sciences and California Center for Population Research (CCPR), University of California

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Abstract

In this paper we develop a formal model to represent effects of early life conditions with delayed health impacts on old age mortality. The model captures several mechanisms through which early conditions influence adult health and mortality. The model is an extension of the standard frailty model in demographic analysis but has distinct and unique implications. We show that populations with Barker frailty experience adult mortality patterns equivalent to a class of time-varying and/or age dependent frailty. We demonstrate formally and via simulations that populations with Barker frailty could experience unchanging or increasing adult mortality even when background mortality has been declining for long periods of time. We also show that the rate of increase of adult mortality rates in populations with Barker frailty will change over time and will always be lower that the rate of increase of adult mortality in the background mortality pattern. We argue that Barker frailty should be pervasive in low-to-middle income populations, e.g. those that experienced a mortality decline fueled largely by post-1950 medical innovations that reduced the load and lethality of infectious and parasitic diseases.
Keywords
Barker hypothesis Old age mortality Demographic frailty
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References (28)
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About this Chapter

Title
    Demographic Consequences of Barker Frailty
Book Title
    Dynamic Demographic Analysis 
Book Part
    Part III
Pages
    pp 147-176
Copyright
    2016
DOI
    10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_8
Print ISBN
    978-3-319-26601-5
Online ISBN
    978-3-319-26603-9
Series Title
    The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis 
Series Volume
    39
Series ISSN
    1389-6784
Publisher
    Springer International Publishing
Copyright Holder
    Springer International Publishing Switzerland
Additional Links

        About this Book

Topics

        Demography
        Statistics for Social Science, Behavorial Science, Education, Public Policy, and Law
        Mathematics in the Humanities and Social Sciences

Keywords

        Barker hypothesis
        Old age mortality
        Demographic frailty

eBook Packages

        Social Sciences

Editors

        Robert Schoen (2)

Editor Affiliations

        2. Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University Population Research Institute

Authors

        Alberto Palloni palloni@ssc.wisc.edu (3)
        Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez (4)

Author Affiliations

        3. Center for Demography of Health & Aging, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 4434 Social Sciences Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI, 53726, USA
        4. Community Health Sciences and California Center for Population Research (CCPR), University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA

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